The tornado probabilities on the watch were astounding: greater than 95% chance of two or more tornadoes; 90% chance of one EF2+ tornado. Oklahoma City, OKNorman, OKLawton, OKEdmond, OKMidwest City, OK Tulsa, OKWichita Falls, TXBroken Arrow, OKEnid, OKMuskogee, OK Lubbock, TXAbilene, TXFort Smith, ARFayetteville, ARSpringdale, AR Dallas, TXFort Worth, TXBoston, MAArlington, TXWichita, KS New York, NYPhiladelphia, PABaltimore, MDWashington, DCKansas City, MO Oklahoma City, OKTulsa, OKLubbock, TXAmarillo, TXAbilene, TX Oklahoma City, OKNorman, OKEdmond, OKMidwest City, OKMoore, OK Lawton, OKStillwater, OKShawnee, OKDuncan, OKAda, OK Dallas, TXFort Worth, TXArlington, TXPlano, TXGarland, TX Colorado Springs, COWichita, KSWorcester, MASpringfield, MASpringfield, MO Oklahoma City, OKTulsa, OKAbilene, TXNorman, OKWichita Falls, TX Lubbock, TXAmarillo, TXMidland, TXOdessa, TXSan Angelo, TX Fort Worth, TXBoston, MAWichita, KSProvidence, RIWorcester, MA New York, NYPhiladelphia, PADallas, TXBaltimore, MDWashington, DC Oklahoma City, OKTulsa, OKNorman, OKWichita Falls, TXLawton, OK Lubbock, TXAmarillo, TXAbilene, TXMidland, TXOdessa, TX Dallas, TXFort Worth, TXArlington, TXWichita, KSPlano, TX New York, NYPhiladelphia, PABaltimore, MDBoston, MAWashington, DC Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table, May 20, 2019 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook. Login . EF2 and EF3 wedge tornadoes from the same supercell. Particularly photogenic tornadoes, part of a cold core tornado outbreak across eastern CO and western KS. when I was in second grade. Massive thunderstorm-triggered haboob that lasted over 2 hours and 100 miles. Upon walking out, something became obvious: It was sticky, breezy and warm. What a silly, unforced error. The meteorological ingredients (instability, wind shear, lifting mechanisms) were certainly in place to produce numerous tornadoes, flooding, and hail. Infamous first EF5 tornado that killed 11 people and destroyed 95% of the town. The atmosphere was capped more than expected. EF4 tornado from a cyclic supercell, part of MNs largest tornado outbreak on record. But at the same time, it left behind a sense of false alarm, ire that schools were needlessly shut down and a desire to better understand the sometimes fickle nature of weather prediction. Ironically, caps can be key ingredients in explosive storm development too. A sequence of tornadoes, including two at one time, emerged from a compact supercell that passed just to the west of Oklahoma City. It is this that leads me to continue to head out to the plains each year in hopes that I'll get to take in Mother Nature's most explosive scenery. It was on the ground for 20 miles and left devastation a half-mile wide. 3-6 hours difference is what saved Oklahoma today. The decision to move east then north in order to catch the tornado between East Duke and Mangum proved to be tactically perfect. But the feared phalanx of violent tornadoes never materialized. Particularly photogenic tornadic waterspout, part of a large-scale tornado outbreak. Snow totals of 3" to 7" were widespread from Denver to Boulder. Long-tracked EF5 wedge tornado that killed 9 people. An enhanced-risk area is already in place for Thursday. My dad was initially skeptical, but we signed up and were ready to take the plunge. Monday May 20, 2019 was a high risk day in Oklahoma. Thats why a single HRRR forecast, especially one in which a forecast is largely composed of something such as simulated radar (which is not a good way to forecast anyway), should be taken with several grains of salt. Monday's #HighRisk #severe forecast wasn't as dire as expected. We watched on our computer as the tour vans intercepted a vicious hailstorm in Montana that blew out all the windows in their caravan and left the passengers with large bruises. Winds were strongest a few minutes before it crossed N of Mangum. March 11, 2019, 9:20 PM Tornado wreaks havoc in northern Michigan community. It would seem to be a subtle effect, but the sublime is everything when it comes to the dynamics of tornadic supercells. One of the longest-lived tornadoes on record, lasting 2.5 to 3 hours, rated EF2 (though likely stronger), a wedge tornado from a high-precipitation supercell. clip. Rather than discussing that, lets talk a little about how we did. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. A thin layer of warm air about two to three miles aloft flowed across the high-risk area from the deserts of northern Mexico and southwest Texas. We got south and ahead of a tornado warned storm near Paducah, Texas just as the first of what we expected to be multiple tornadoes touched down. This archive sparks the question, why did this happen? Similar environments make similar storms, but a storms environment isnt just skew-Ts and hodographs. It was time for a tire change (safety first, and tires are a priority), so we took care of that in the morning before we departed on the chase. Supercell that produced a large wedge EF3 tornado before acquiring a particularly photogenic mothership structure. May 18, 2019. May 20, 2019 Tornado Mangum, Oklahoma. Particularly photogenic tidal wave-like supercell. Webuy car or home insurance with the intent of never having to use it. Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Photogenic EF2 tornado from a cyclic supercell that produced tornadoes up to EF3. Infamous long-tracked EF4 tornado that killed 6 people and destroyed an already decaying town. It never fails to perplex, confound and humble us, even when we think we have the smallest shred of understanding. In the delicate balance of this decision lies the potential for disconnect between forecast models and reality, and the subtle nuances of processes governing convective storms. EF3 tornado, part of several tornadoes produced by the remnants of Hurricane Ida. If you were following the majority of meteorological messages leading up to Monday, dire warnings about an epic tornado outbreak were being conveyed. Published on 149-mile-long EF4 tornado that killed 10 people. Particularly photogenic EF3 tornado that killed two teens driving. Such events reveal a certain scientific giddiness coexisting with a sense of dread among meteorologists and weather enthusiasts. May 20th, 2019 SPC 1630z day tornado probabilities An outbreak of tornadoes, some potentially long-track and violent, is expected today into this evening over portions of northwest Texas into western and central Oklahoma. Colorado record hail, measured at 4.83 inches, and twin tornadoes. Long-tracked EF4 tornado that killed 8 people, the strongest February tornado on record in Oklahoma. Pair of photogenic tornadic waterspouts over Lake Michigan. Long-tracked EF3 tornado near Plains, and two EF3 tornadoes, including one wedge tornado, in close proximity to Pampa. Pair of particularly photogenic LP mothership supercells. Part of the 2011 Super Outbreak. EF5 tornado, one of the U.S.s deadliest on record due especially to a particularly rapid evolution, killing 158 people. The tornado outbreak sequence of May 2019 was a prolonged series of destructive tornadoes and tornado outbreaks affecting the United States over the course of nearly two weeks, producing a total of 400 tornadoes, including 53 significant events (EF2+). Tornado which made what was likely the first recorded tornadic sonic boom upon dissipation. EF2 tornado, one of multiple photogenic tornadoes from a cyclic supercell. The tornado outbreak sequence of May 2019. Photogenic and tornadic mothership supercell. A tornado outbreak occurred during the afternoon and evening hours of the May 20, 2013, and was the last day of a three-day stretch of significant severe weather from May 18-20, 2013. What if we had had 5 of those yesterday in the warm sector? Particularly photogenic mothership supercell that produced a couple of tornadoes. Outflow storm modes dominate. We started making our way south towards Childress, Texas with the expectation that storms would develop and become tornadic by mid-morning a truly rare event in and of itself. On. The corridor of activity closely matched the moderate- and high-risk areas outlooked by SPC the night before (see below). This statement is not particularly unusual at this time of the year. 1 month ago At least 14 tornadoes rip through the Gulf Coast Homes and businesses were gutted in the Texas suburb of Pasadena after a tornado brought torrential rains and wind. May 20, 2019 SPC warning coordination meteorologist Patrick Marsh also pondered the day's perplexities on Twitter. Each case comes with documentation, a proximity sounding from unmodified RAP and ERA5 reanalysis, (see disclaimer), and storm-centered NEXRAD imagery. Particularly photogenic orange carrot tornado. With relative ease considering the number of chasers we expected to see, we made it back out onto the main road. At least when Im chasing (and often when Im not), I stay up the night before to see the new day one outlook, issued at 1 am central time. may 20, 2019 tornado bust. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued for the entire county warning area (CWA) late Thursday afternoon. Additional cases will be added. I will write about these on occasion, and am most proud of my John Park Finley and Theodore Fujita collections. After dinner, I did some in depth model analysis and some of what I saw was eye-popping; extreme instability coupled with incredible shear created a parameter space on par with or perhaps exceeding any of the biggest outbreaks in recorded history. Stay weather aware this weekend and be prepared for severe weather on Monday if you live in the southern Plains pic.twitter.com/KoDrtPD1zN. Long-tracked EF4 tornado that killed 10 people. Two of 10 tornadoes produced by a cyclic supercell, part of an event with an eastern extent and intensity that was largely a surprise.. Pair of particularly photogenic tornadoes. Neither RAP nor ERA5 will not perfectly represent the observed environment. 20 p.m. Simultaneously, heavy rains from severe thunderstorms flooded roads and houses and triggered water rescues. So what happened on Mondayor rather, what didnt happen, and why? If any info here is re-used please cite author (Cameron Nixon) and web page (https://www.ustornadoes.com/case-archive/). Drawing on my earlier research days attempting to grow mathematically simulated, intense thunderstorms on a Cray supercomputer, I can attest to the nonlinearity of the atmosphere: Very slight changes in the thermodynamic environment of a storm can have disproportionately large profoundly large impacts on the response of cloud systems, most notably the vigor and depth of cloud updrafts. Ive experienced this on a few occasions; May 24th, 2011 and May 31st, 2013 immediately come to mind. May 2019 tornado Jefferson City leaders document two years since EF3 tornado May 21, 2021 4:13 AM Meghan Drakas Jefferson City community leaders and organizations will be holding a. Some of the images of chaser traffic behind us are mind blowing. Eleanor Bowles was discovered dead by her son around 5:30 p.m . Yet, the word forecast bust started creeping into the narrative of our insular meteorology community. Often regarded as the gold standard for recent dust storms for the west Texas area. We managed to stay ahead of that and get a beautiful view of a gorgeous white tornado. Particularly photogenic surprise morning mothership supercell. Updrafts tended to be skinny. However, outbreak forecasts can be challenging too. EF3 tornado, largely regarded as a surprise event. Also featured a rather large eye on radar at peak intensity. Take control of your data. Sure enough, this decision and perhaps this decision alone proved the best one wed make all day. EF3 tornado that was largely unanticipated. Search the case index below for cases by state, month, year, location, and other key info. Two days prior on May 18th, the SPC issued a relatively rare Day three moderate risk, and re-upped the moderate risk the following day. The next morning I woke up and met up with my chase partners. A 2015 study in the journal Risk Analysis, The Cry Wolf Effect and WeatherRelated Decision Making, also found conflicting results. The night before we were set to fly out to meet up with the tour in Denver, a video came to our attention that had been filmed by Roger the night before. It wasnt long before storms began developing to our southwest. The proclamation quickly became a lead story among the major news outlets. Long-lived, nearly stationary EF3 wedge tornado. They (generally) dont just pop up out of nowhere, and with the rise of social media consequent with the popularization of storm chasing as a quasi-mainstream hobby, no big day goes unnoticed in the days leading up. Cyclic supercell that produced multiple tornadoes, including a large, dust-wrapped, and particularly photogenic wedge tornado. If you are using the metrics of 45% coverage of tornadoes or long-track, violent tornadoes, then the Monday outbreak probably doesnt meet that threshold. EF3 wedge tornado, particularly long-tracked, wide, and at an early time of day for the area. Truncated cone tornado rated EF2 that damaged a gas plant. EF3 tornado and others from cyclic, high-precipitation supercell. Slow-moving EF4 wedge tornado lasting over 90 minutes, often referred to as Bennington II. Photogenic and dusty EF2 tornado that hit an oil workers camp. However, smoke's effects on supercells might actually depend on the particulars of a given weather day, as suggested in a 2014 modeling study. Long-lived EF2 tornado from an HP supercell with northwest flow. EF3 tornado, part of a large-scale tornado outbreak. EF3 tornado that struck parts of metro New Orleans. Overcast skies limited surface heating. 1.8-mile-wide EF3 tornado, part of an infamous outbreak of tornadoes across western Kansas. Long-tracked EF4 tornado that became the third widest on record at 2.25 miles, and killed 8 people. Since I started chasing, I've seen a host of significant tornado events, including the 2011 Joplin EF5 and the 2013 El Reno EF3 (El Reno was an EF5), amongst many others. Wedge tornado produced by high-precipitation supercell, with recorded winds up to 212 mph, though rated an EF2. Associated with a supercell which produced 22 tornadoes across central KS, including one likely wider and stronger than the Greensburg EF5. EF2 tornado, part of a local tornado outbreak around the DFW metro. A BRIEF TORNADO WAS REPORTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. the latest public statement about this event. Part of an outbreak of tornadoes across the central Plains. There was even a car accident between some chasers as traffic grinded to a near halt. This is video from that storm near the town of Mangum, OK. Looking for inspiration? It wasnt even apparent until *maybe* 21z special OUN RAOB at the earliest. Both supercells were very long-lived, one producing over 10 tornadoes, many significant and deadly. Long-lived EF3 tornado, the strongest recorded in southeast MT. Given the relatively quick storm motion and the now lengthening line of chasers behind us, we were only able to stop for 30 seconds or so at a time to take photos. The tornado outbreak is expected to continue into the overnight period. A few tornadoes (up to EF2, though likely stronger) occurring primarily from the same supercell in rapid succession (with a brief period of two simultaneous tornadoes), part of a local outbreak in and around the Texas panhandle. At this point, we assumed that the storm would recycle and produce another, larger tornado. may 20, 2019 tornado bustview from my seat theatreview from my seat theatre MOORE, Okla. - Six years ago, a devastating EF-5 tornado hit Moore, killing more than 20 people, including children. Curiously enough though, another storm had developed on its western flank, similar to what this storm had done to a storm to its east earlier in the day. Particularly photogenic dusty EF3 tornado, part of an outbreak of tornadoes across IL and the Ohio Valley. Often regarded as one of the greatest days of modern storm chasing. Canadas only (particularly photogenic) EF5 tornado. Several tornadoes produced by a cluster of cyclic supercells in rapid succession. Myconcern is that our weather geekery and verification statistics dont really matter to someone that was impacted. Heres a guide. For that we should all be thankful even us storm chasers who want nothing more than to chase on a day with the feel. Many believe the High Risk outlook issued by the SPC busted. The forecast wasnt a total bust by any means. Localized outbreak of tornadoes (up to EF3), including 2 simultaneous EF2 tornadoes across central IA. A particularly photogenic mothership supercell. Modeling studies published in 2008 and 2015 found that smoke intrusions can actually intensify tornado-producing environments. There are many factors that likely influence a decision to act on a warning: optimism bias (it wont be as bad as they say), the psychological evaluation of risks vs. cost, geography or lack of trust of the warnings themselves. Family of photogenic tornadoes, with twins at times. EF2 tornado, one of several produced by a slow-moving supercell. What emerged was a bona fide severe weather outbreak, but less fierce and extensive than the one many computer models and official outlooks had indicated was a strong possibility. I call this worst-case scenario bias. By the way, a few weeks ago my family had to rush to the basement because of a Doppler radar-indicated tornado. Some of the feel is undoubtedly related to the hype that comes with high-end tornado events. A new study entitled Cry wolf effect? But when it ultimately comes down to it, theres nothing that hypes up storm chasers like when a high-end convective outlook is issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). The long of it: Growing up in Maplewood, New Jersey, its hard to become obsessed with the most extreme weather on the planet. From a messaging standpoint, many people already feel that weather is hyped. Data is our film room.. It followed an EF4 tornado from the same supercell, and was followed from behind by an even longer-tracked EF3 tornado ongoing simultaneously from a different supercell. (Katie Wheatley) Volleys of tornadoes touched down for 14 straight days beginning May 17, 2019. EF4 tornado that killed 9 people after impacting an elevated highway bridge. Theres a constant breeze. Around the same time, the storm inexplicably began to shrivel up. Tornadoes in the main outbreak region from May 17 through 30. Particularly photogenic supercell, especially for the northern California region. May 24th, 2011 featured an ultra, ultra rare 45% hatched probability for tornadoes that lived up to its potential by producing several long-track, violent tornadoes. There are five levels of severe weather risk issued by the SPC, the details of which can be seen below. November 15, 2005: Madisonville, Kentucky, April 2, 2006: Marmaduke, Arkansas / Caruthersville, Missouri, March 28, 2007: Silverton / Jericho, Texas, April 24, 2007: Eagle Pass, Texas / Piedras Negras, CH, Mexico, June 23, 2007: Pipestone, Manitoba, Canada, February 5, 2008: Atkins / Clinton, Arkansas, February 5, 2008: Jackson and Clifton, Tennessee, August 7, 2010: Tyler, North Dakota / Doran, Minnesota, December 31, 2010: Fort Leonard Wood, Missouri, April 27, 2011: Philadelphia, Mississippi, April 27, 2011: Hackleburg & Smithville, Alabama, April 27, 2011: Tuscaloosa / Birmingham, Alabama, May 24, 2011: El Reno / Piedmont, Oklahoma, May 24, 2011: Chickasha / Newcastle, Oklahoma, May 19, 2012: Kingman / Harper Counties, Kansas, February 10, 2013: Hattiesburg, Mississippi, May 19, 2013: Lake Thunderbird / Shawnee, Oklahoma, April 27, 2014: Mayflower / Vilonia, Arkansas, May 18, 2014: Wright / Newcastle, Wyoming, April 9, 2015: Rochelle / Fairdale, Illinois, May 6, 2015: Amber / Bridge Creek / Norman, Oklahoma, June 5, 2015: Anton / Cope / Kirk, Colorado, June 22, 2015: Woodhaven Lakes / Sublette, Illinois, July 13, 2015: Nickerson / Hutchinson, Kansas, November 16, 2015: Plains, Kansas and Pampa, Texas, December 23, 2015: Holly Springs, Mississippi, May 9, 2016: Katie / Wynnewood / Sulphur, Oklahoma, May 24, 2016: Minneola / Dodge City, Kansas, June 2, 2017: Three Hills, Alberta, Canada, July 12, 2017: Mayville/ Buxton, North Dakota, June 28, 2018: Capitol, Montana / Camp Crook, South Dakota, July 8, 2018: Interstate 8 / Southwest Arizona, July 19, 2018: Bondurant, Marshalltown, and Pella, Iowa, September 21, 2018: Dunrobin / Gatineau / Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, October 2, 2018: Conneautville, Pennsylvania, December 1, 2018: Havana and Taylorville, Illinois, May 23, 2019: Canadian, Texas / Laverne, Oklahoma, September 10, 2019: Guernsey / Lingle, Wyoming, September 29, 2019: Champaign County, Illinois, March 2, 2020: Nashville / Cookeville, Tennessee, April 12, 2020: Bassfield / Soso, Mississippi, April 22, 2020: Madill / Springer, Oklahoma, August 7, 2020: Virden / Scarth, Manitoba, Canada, March 25, 2021: Greensboro / Centreville, Alabama, April 27, 2021: Truscott / Benjamin / Electra, Texas, June 10, 2021: Sidney, Montana / Alexander, North Dakota, July 14, 2021: Jewell Junction / Stanhope, Iowa, August 11, 2021: Mineral Point, Wisconsin, September 1, 2021: Mullica Hill, New Jersey, December 10, 2021: Monette, Arkansas / Mayfield, Kentucky, March 21, 2022: Round Rock & Elgin, Texas, March 22, 2022: New OrleansArabi, Louisiana, April 21, 2022: Rush Center & Offerle, Kansas, November 4, 2022: Clarksville, Texas Idabel, Oklahoma, a local outbreak in and around the Texas panhandle, series of particularly photogenic tornadoes, Pair of particularly photogenic tornadoes. An outbreak occurred overnight on October 20, 2019. A brief tornado had apparently already occurred while we were still west of Childress . Alas, we couldnt see a thing through a haze so dense that visibility was seemingly reduced to a hundred yards. As we began the trek to get back in front, the storm began to pulse upward and the rotation began to tighten there was hope. After what seemed like an eternity, we started to see something emerge and come towards us a large, strong to violent multiple-vortex, white stovepipe tornado and it was close.