It's happened before. There are numerous theories about why it happened in 2020. These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. With a total turnout of 78%, Donald Trump won Ottawa County by a margin of 61% to 38%, improving his 2016 return by four points. If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. (Think about what it takes, and what is required for a county to always get the election right. The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. All other 21 counties voted Republican. running an event, collecting and distributing information, Canvassing: Alarming Results in Multiple States, Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, The Curious Case of the 2020 Voting Rate Blowouts, How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, The Counties Where Votes and Party Registrations Don't Align, Investigating the Large Democrat Vote Increases, USEIPs Election Fraud Data Analytics Guide, 2000 Mules: Video Evidence of Ballot Trafficking, Voting Machines Lacking EAC Accreditation, List of Legislators Supporting Election Audits, Forensic Analysis of Mesa County Machine Images, A Vote Trafficking Parable, by David K. Clements, Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, View the County & Local Organizing Playbook, Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel, Bellwether counties are not just statistical curiosities, The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is, We have identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Fifth, it listswhether each candidate's politicalparty won seats in the House of Representatives which occurred withObama andTrump, but not Biden. TIP: The divisions were everywhere. Enter Donald Trump. (subject to censorship). We relaxed the constraint by introducing the concept of a swing county, i.e. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Or itcould have almost 10.1 million residents, like Los Angeles County. In fact, according to David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, compared to 1,096 counties that fit that description in 1992. Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Bucks has three times the voters than its neighboring county to the north. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Those places will get the bulk of the presidential candidates time and their surrounding media markets will get the bulk of the television ad spending. What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). Outstanding. To flip Pennsylvania, Trump has to start in Bucks and expand in places like Northampton. If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. Increased political polarization is another reason why fewer counties are consistently indicative of presidential results in recent years. The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. 4. Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. Lake County is a perpetual nail-biter. Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. Since 1960, Democrats have won Rockingham County only three times. A surge in African-American turnout helped deliver Cincinnatis Hamilton County to Obama in 2008, making him the first Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson to carry the population hub of southwest Ohio. Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. Feel free to forward a link to your elected officials as well. When is Eurovision and how do you get tickets? "It wasn't part of his strategy.". More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. So, where are the bellwether counties? These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. In the past, says Mrs Day-Baker, the presence of conservative Democrats and split-ticket voting - choosing a Republican nominee for president but Democratic Party candidates as local representatives, or vice versa - were both commonplace. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. That report was issued on Nov. 12. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. It came close to reflecting the statewide vote in 2012. With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. 9. Watch Hampton City. In the 1990s, he says, Democrats ran for many local county positions unopposed. 5. (The highest value being again 66.1%). In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. 6. i.e. Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. Other counties to watch: Denver suburbs Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson. Trump won 18 of the 19. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. We tried to pick counties that had a large enough population to matter some or if they just had a knack for picking that statewide winner. It gets a lot more interesting. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. The more people can work out and see for themselves that the data clearly indicates a different outcome, the better. Until this year. The divisions were everywhere. Mike Pence, could marshal his supporters to cross the border and provide support. Republicans have paid some attention. Telegram Telegram Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. All Rights Reserved. "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. Ron Elving . In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. Yet Donald Trump received 10 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016 -- and lost. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump He is based in San Francisco and has also written for NBC News and The Hill. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. [Even Though Biden Won, Republicans Enjoyed The Largest Electoral College Edge In 70 Years. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. Their concerns are real. Have you looked at the results of these counties? ), voted Democrat again in 2020? Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. Here's why. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. 2023 BBC. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. They simply vote on merit. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. (i.e. But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. In this section we will introduce a new concept: The swing county. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. "I think people were pretty happy with some of the things he's done, what he's been able to accomplish," says Mark Coppeler, a leading local Republican who was re-elected county commissioner last month. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. . There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. Thank you for supporting our journalism. How Does The Electoral College Work And Is It Fair? Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). In their . Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . Have information that relates to fraud in this election? It's true that the report first showed Biden at 477 counties andTrump at 2,497 counties, though ithas since been updated to showBiden at 509 andTrump at 2,547. Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 51%-49% - 2008: Obama 50%-49%. Subscribe to breaking updates So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties. These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. 7. And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country. Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). Especially since Biden received million more votes than Obama did in 2008. Just how big is it? All rights reserved. Unfortunately, Github (now a Microsoft company) terminated this website's account on 13 Jan 2021 for "spreading misinformation", a violation of their terms, although no specific examples were given. Other counties to watch: Clinton has to drive up the margins in counties along the shores of Lake Erie, from Lucas (Toledo) to most notably Cuyahoga (Cleveland). The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. But that's no longer the case. A caveat: because its black population is higher than the state average (21 percent versus 13 percent), the county has gone narrowly for Democrats even in 2004 and 2000 when George W. Bush won the state. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention), Latest voter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 112,113Democrats: 109,965Republicans: 100,540Libertarian: 3,009.